One week on: The impact of the delay to 2030

Last week the Government announced a delay on the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel with the ban now coming into force in 2035, rather than the previous deadline of 2030.

But what impact has this had on demand for EVs and what are the longer-term impacts of the U-turn?

In-market buyers not put off an EV

The good news is that we’ve seen no immediate impact on demand for EVs on our site, with demand for both new and used EVs remaining consistent with what we have seen in the weeks prior to the announcement.

The current market then is unaffected, with no signs of an imminent drop in demand for EVs. This indicates that the delayed ban has not prevented those consumers looking to make the switch to an EV in the near term from making their purchase and that retailers should continue to capitalise on the growth in demand for used EVs that we have seen in the last few months.

It remains crucial to keep track of what’s happening in the EV market to inform pricing and stocking decisions and we have a multitude of ways you can keep updated on the market.

You’ll find a snapshot of our EV market data, including levels of demand, supply and prices, on our all-new EV Hub.

You can get deeper into the data using our free-to-use Market Insight tool. This tool live tracks the market on a macro and local level, allowing you to see which vehicles, electric or otherwise, are performing best in your area.

Buyers not on their EV journey put off electric

Whilst the announcement saw little impact on current demand, we have seen worrying signs that it has impacted the confidence of consumers not currently on their EV journey.

Our research has found that 7 in 10 consumers don’t know that the ban applies to new cars only, with these consumers believing the ban will also apply to used vehicles. The Government has failed to make it clear to car buyers that most of them will be unaffected by the ban since it only applies to new car sales, causing further confusion among car buyers.

We also found that the delay has caused many car buyers to delay their first EV purchase, with only 39% of buyers saying they will buy an EV by 2035. As well as this, we’ve seen a rise in the number of buyers stating that they have no intention of ever buying an EV, with 37% of car buyers now stating they’re unlikely to ever buy an EV.

The focus should be on the current market which we’ve shown is remaining stable, but it’s clear the Government U-turn has significantly dented consideration among buyers not currently engaged with EVs. We therefore need to continue to engage the broad car-buying population with EVs, highlighting the total cost of ownership benefits and suitability for most lifestyles, whilst also offering incentives to encourage buyers to make the switch.

ZEV mandate keeps new EV market targets

Another less high-profile policy announcement was also made last week, with the Government announcing that the ZEV (Zero Emissions Vehicle) Mandate would remain in place. This effectively means that, whilst the Government is delaying forcing new car buyers into EVs, it is maintaining the targets set based on the 2030 deadline.

This mandate requires that a certain proportion of new car sales will have to be zero emission i.e., electric, with manufacturers facing penalties should they miss the quotas.

The mandate will come into effect next year, with 22% of sales required to be zero emissions, increasing to 80% in 2030. This essentially means that sales projections of EVs will remain very similar if not identical to projections based on the 2030 ban since the volume of new EVs entering the UK car parc will remain ultimately unchanged. You can view our full timeline to electric including sales volumes here, with our car parc prediction below.

The reality for consumers is that as the decade rolls on, they’ll have an extremely limited pool of new petrol and diesel cars to choose from, with most new models set to be electric.

Despite the U-turn then, the EV market will see mandated growth in coming years with almost all new car sales set to be EV by 2030. However, there is now even more work needed to be done by industry to cut through the consumer confusion and misinformation that the U-turn has only served to exacerbate. Only by working together can we ensure consumers are clear on the path for electric.